2019 Water Division and Positional Eligibility

Continuing with analysis of the 2019 season, below is my customary yearly chart showing the fantasy point totals for all 12 sign-based lineups in the Fantasy Astrology Baseball League, along with some information about the signs themselves. As a reminder, I use the old school Small World fantasy point system, and the lineups are based on a 17-player selection: one position player for each spot on the diamond (plus DH), five starting pitchers, and three relief pitchers.

Last year, over at my old blog (the O.B. for short), I created a retrospective playoff bracket for the 2019 Fantasy Astrology season, based on each sign’s aggregated point totals. I feel compelled to return to that same topic now because of some… new shit that has come to light. When I discovered that the 2020 fantasy points provided by the ESPN client had discrepancies with the points I calculated myself from Baseball-Reference.com, I went back and checked the 2019 season, just to be safe. The results: EARTH SHATTERING CHANGES IN THE STANDINGS. The good news is, I went back further and found no meaningful differences in the point totals from 2018 and 2017. So hopefully this is just a blip (possibly caused by changes to ESPN’s site format?). But rest assured, I’ll be monitoring the situation. What you see here is based on my updated calculations for this new blog.

The most curious aspect of the point totals from 2019 is how closely all the signs are grouped together. The top scoring Pisces Fish checked in with 31,392 points (just 15 more than the second place Leo Lions) while the bottom-feeding Taurus Bulls compiled just 26,970. This makes for a range of just under 4,500 (4,422 to be exact), the smallest range of any FABL “season” in the past 30 years. [NOTE: as of this writing, I have only seriously analyzed back to 1990, so it’s possible this could change.] This includes the strike shortened 1994 and 1995 seasons. I’m not sure how to explain this phenomenon, except to say that the stars could tell something crazy was about to happen in the world of and wanted to make sure all the signs were converging to a common starting point.

Due to the divisional structure of the FABL, the playoffs would actually contain two teams in the bottom half of the rankings. The three top scoring teams in the Positive Polarity were all in the Fire Division: Leo, Aries, and Sagittarius all outscored Libra, the top team in the Air Division. Similarly, the three top scoring teams in the Negative Polarity were all from the Water Division: Pisces, Cancer, and Scorpio all outscored Virgo, which led the Earth Division. I don’t know what this elemental oddity signifies in terms of horoscopes and predictions, but I have no doubt that it’s significant.

I’d like to focus on the race between Cancer and Pisces, who were separated by a mere 97 fantasy points – 31,392 for the Fish vs. 31,295 for the Crabs. These teams were so close that I actually had them FLIPPED in my Old Blog post (I also had Leo ahead of each of them, so this new version of the stats REALLY changed the FABL landscape). The reason why the PIC vs. CAN race ended up being so close was because of a conceptual decision I made at the very start of this project: to consider a player’s CAPABILITY to play certain positions rather than their strict ELIGIBILITY at those positions.

The positions in question here involve the middle infield spots, perhaps the easiest justification to make as far as positional swaps. I’ve long been a believer that someone capable of playing shortstop is also capable of playing anywhere else in the infield, but this applies especially to second base, since the latter is basically a less demanding version of the former. Thus, when confronted with a player pool such as CAN19, with Jorge Polanco (2,104 points / 13.8 points-per-game) and Trea Turner (2,035 / 16.7) leading the way at SS, I have no compunctions about moving one of them to the keystone to maximize the sign’s available points.

Looking at Cancer’s top scorers from 2019, you might think this is an unnecessary adjustment: primary second baseman DJ LeMahieu (2,298 / 15.8) was the sign’s third-highest scorer after all. However, DJLM also qualified at first base, where he fits nicely considering the Crabs need the NL MVP-winning bat of Cody Bellinger (2,849 / 18.3) in center field. It’s like putting together a baseball player-shaped puzzle, and to be honest, this lineup creation wheeling and dealing is my favorite part of the project.

However, if one is a stickler for fantasy positional eligibility – where a player needs at least 20 games at a position to qualify – things would look quite different. Turner would be out of the lineup completely (considering he trails pure DH Nelson Cruz (2,114 / 17.6) in point totals), LeMahieu would move to second, Bellinger would move to first, and Ramon Laureano (1,629 / 13.2) would come off the bench to handle center field. Using this configuration, Cancer’s overall 2019 point total would clock in at 30,889, or 503 points behind Pisces.

But, you might ask, what of positional eligibility shenanigans where Pisces is concerned? I did make one concession to the Fish’s roster in 2019, this one also having to do with a middle infielder. The surprise 2019 offensive outbreak of defensive specialist Nick Ahmed (1,718 / 10.9) pushed fellow shortstop Jean Segura (1,597 / 11.1) to third base. This move is particularly justified, since Segura would go on to play 3B regularly in 2020 (where he also added third base eligibility, further proof of my axiom that a shortstop can handle any position on the infield). But if we’re going with pure 2019 eligibility, Segura would have to sit in favor of Vlad Guerrero Jr. (1,314 / 10.7), costing PIC nearly 300 points. However, even with this adjustment, the Fish would still finish above 220 points the Crabs with a score of 31,109.

There are even further aspects to consider when it comes to Cancer’s point total from 2019, and these involve its pitching staff. In truly tragic circumstances, Angels lefty Tyler Skaggs passed away during the 2019 season. And while it’s impressive that he pitched well enough to slot in as CAN’s fourth starter (649 / 43.3), it wouldn’t be prudent to use his likeness in a simulated postseason scenario. The line is more blurred when considering relief pitcher Felipe Vazquez (1,755 / 31.3). The pitcher formerly known as Felipe Rivero would presumably still be physically able to pitch… if he were not currently behind bars due to some heinous sexual assault charges that came to light last September. Substituting these two out for Michael Wacha (627 / 21.6) and Nick Anderson (835 / 12.2) causes a significant hit to the Crabs’ overall point totals.

In the meantime, the Pisces pitching staff is pristine (i.e. no positional shenanigans, which for pitchers only involves the designation of starter/reliever). This staff was led by the deadly one-two punch of Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. Additionally, all three top relievers are dedicated bullpen pieces; remember I’ll allow any pitcher with any number of starts into one of these slots, as long as they racked up more relief appearances than starts in the season. Not only that, they were all dedicated closers in 2019, meaning they pitched in no fewer than 20% of their teams’ save opportunities. And they have a fourth (partial closer) option behind them in World Series hero Daniel Hudson.

Next time, I’ll continue my trip backwards through time and look at the awards winners of the 2018 FABL season.