If the Season Ended Today: Leo Season

On Wednesday, the official @MLB Twitter account posted a graphic with how the postseason picture would look if the season ended that day.  I don’t know what prompted them to choose July 21 for their cutoff: we’re well past the halfway point, both mathematically (July 2) and symbolically (the All-Star break on July 12), and nine days before the trade deadline. But since today is the start of Leo season, I thought I’d take that opportunity to perform the same thought experiment with respect to the Fantasy Astrology Baseball League.

Appropriately enough, it’s Leo at the top of the standings, both in terms of win percentage (10-4, .714) and percentage to reach the playoffs (99% according to the ESPN.com standings page). The Lions offense is led by the expected excellence of J.D. Martinez (1,425 points / 16.0 points-per-game) and the surprise breakouts of Jesse Winker (1,269 / 14.4) and Jared Walsh (1,221 / 13.3). While this team has been hit hard by injuries, they should be getting some reinforcements in the near future: Mike Trout (552 / 15.3) has begun running the bases, Luis Robert (278 / 11.1) just started a minor league rehab assignemtn, and Adalberto Mondesi (199 / 19.9) has progressed to swinging a bat.

On the pitching side, Walker Buehler (1,596 / 84.0) has been their statistical ace, although it’s hard to imagine anyone but Max Scherzer (1,356 / 75.3) starting a potential game 1 of a postseason series. Buehler’s Dodgers teammate Julio Urias (1,371 / 68.6) and their division rival Padres’ ace Yu Darvish (1,259 / 66.3) round out the playoff rotation, with Taijuan Walker (982 / 57.8) waiting in the wings. A somewhat shaky bullpen picture heading into the season has resulted in three relievers with at least ten saves each: Jake McGee (1,059 / 26.5), Yimi Garcia (682 / 17.9), and Hansel Robles (614 / 14.3).

Right behind Leo, with a 95% playoff chance, is Pisces, led by All-Star Game MVP Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1,781 / 19.4) and his Toronto teammate Bo Bichette (1,399 / 15.2). Pisces also leads the league in total points as of the All-Star break, but more on that later. The injury bug has bitten this team as well, with Nick Madrigal (557 / 10.3) already out for the year, the red hot Kyle Schwarber (1,042 / 14.5) down with a “significant hamstring strain,” and Nick Castellanos (1,361 / 15.8) recently succumbing to a microfracture in his wrist. A deep crop of outfielders – including Adolis Garcia (1,126 / 13.1), Trey Mancini (1,099 /11.9), Randy Arozarena (1,054 / 12.0), and Tommy Pham (1,048 / 11.0) – will keep the Fish in the hunt, but their playoff roster would be down some key cogs if the season did in fact end today.

In the rotation, Chris Bassitt (1,398 / 69.9) is the ace, with German Marquez (1,122 / 56.1) and rookie James Kaprielian (764 / 63.7) forming the next two healthy hurlers. However, the losses of Clayton Kershaw (1,221 / 67.8) to the dreaded “forearm tightness” and Pablo Lopez (1,033 / 54.4) to a rotator cuff strain really puts this team’s depth to the test. Newly minted Tigers closer Michael Fulmer (526 / 21.0) is also on the IL, but he’s not even one of Pisces’s top four relief pitchers: those are Brad Hand (1,100 / 28.9), Aroldis Chapman (899 / 24.3), Richard Rodriguez (873 / 24.3), and Emmanuel Clase (724 / 17.7).

While Leo (Positive) and Pisces (Negative) basically have the top spots in their polarities locked up, the runners up are both still up in the air. In the Air Division, Libra and Gemini are tied atop the standings with an 8-6 record. Based on playoff percentage, Libra has the edge at 57%, even though they are trailing in this week’s matchup (against Aquarius) while Gemini (41%) is ahead (vs. Leo). It’s no question that Libra is the more complete team, with multiple All-Star quality hitters and pitchers, while Gemini’s top players are all on the pitching side. But as the old saying goes, it doesn’t matter where a team gets their fantasy points.

The highlights of Libra’s superior offense include Cedric Mullins (1,308 / 13.9), Xander Bogaerts (1,290 / 14.5), Mookie Betts (1,204 / 14.7), and Bryce Harper (1,041 / 14.3), while the only Gemini batter to surpass 1,000 points so far is Yuli Gurriel (1,145 / 12.7). And while the Twins absolutely dominate the Scales in terms of pitching depth and excellence, most of their top hurlers - Jacob deGrom (1,638 / 109.2), Shane Bieber (1,005 / 71.8), and Aaron Civale (1,083 / 72.2) - are currently injured. But that still leaves Zack Wheeler (1,511 / 79.5), Freddy Peralta (1,340 / 74.4), and Jose Berrios (1,146 / 60.3) in the healthy column. Meanwhile, Libra’s Corbin Burnes (1,290 / 80.6), Robbie Ray (1,296 / 68.2), Lance McCullers Jr. (1,016 / 63.5), and Kyle Gibson (1,080 / 60.0) are no slouches, but that group doesn’t have the same level of star power.

Taurus has the lead in the Earth Division with an 8-6 record, but Virgo and Capricorn are tied at just one game back. But while the Bulls have the lowest playoff odds of any division leader, at 52%, their closest competitors (Virgo) are at just 29% (with Capricorn bringing up the rear at 19%). That’s a 23% gap, which is farther than the difference between Libra and Gemini (16%). So I think it’s safe to pencil in the club led by Jose Altuve (1,379 / 16.4), Lance Lynn (1,292 / 76.0), and the COVID-ridden Aaron Judge (1,144 / 13.6) for a playoff spot.

However, if you go by total fantasy points (as I do when determining league “winners” after the season), both Virgo (17,347) and Capricorn (17,160) are well ahead of Taurus (15,208). In fact, the Bulls sit second-to-last in overall points as of the All-Star break. But that’s just one disconnect between a fantasy league built on weekly matchups, versus determining point totals after the fact. For one thing, I have to determine which players are more likely to perform well in any given week when setting the lineups, rather than just cherry picking the players who have already had good seasons. Plus, a lot of each team’s record depends on their weekly opponents… although I guess each player’s fantasy point totals depend on their real-life teams’ real-life opponents.

And of course, both of these configurations are completely separate from the simulated season I’m running on MLB The Show 21, although to be honest, I’ve put that project on hold in favor of playing Road to the Show with my created player Krys Regnom. (Get it? It’s Ryskmonger backwards… almost.) I might expound more on that endeavor later. But it won’t be next time, because next time I’m continuing on the reverse-chronological journey through FABL history and looking at the 1997 season.