FABL 2021 Playoff Preview: Negative Polarity
Can you believe how close the race for the 2021 Earth Division ended up being? Taurus and Virgo were tied with the same win-loss record (11-9) heading into the last weekly matchup of the season… in which they were scheduled to play against each other! After trailing in the ESPN fantasy client-calculated “playoff odds” for most of the season, the Bulls pulled off a stunning upset victory by a margin of just over 100 fantasy points! This means that fantasy stars like Jose Ramirez (2,096 points on the season), Gerrit Cole (2,080), Freddie Freeman (1,972), and Paul Goldschmidt (1,822) were left out in the cold when fantasy playoffs started yesterday.
The tightness of this battle makes me wonder what might have changed if I had paid closer attention to certain roster decisions over the course of the season. Or heck, things might even have gone very differently if I hadn’t made the choice to sit Marcus Semien (2,093) in favor of Carlos Correa (1,697) based on the latter’s recent hot streak. But I’m paying attention now, which involved creating three separate lineups for each playoff sign to determine their best possible starting options for the postseason. One takes into account fantasy points from the whole season so far, another uses only stats from the last 30 days, and a third looks at just the last two weeks. That way, I can balance full season consistency with recent performance.
Starting with Taurus – and starting with the stars who made all three lineups – their lineup has been held together all season by power hitting catcher Salvador Perez (1,842) and newly center field eligible Aaron Judge (1,745). Tommy Edman (1,527) has eligibility all over the diamond, but he’s best utilized in a middle infield spot. Although Matt Chapman (1,348) has struggled for most of the season, he’s been hitting well for at least the last month. The opposite is true of Jose Altuve (1,718), whose cold streak caused me to bump Edman to second base and have the shortstop/DH rotation go between the red-hot Jonathan Villar (1,125) and the recently returned from injury Corey Seager (850).
The other two outfield spots go to Alex Verdugo (1,449) and Austin Meadows (1,605), although the last spot was a toss-up between Meadows and Tyler Naquin (1,327), who has been marginally better over the last month. One outfielder who’s not in the mix is Michael Brantley (1,283) who is currently third in the AL in batting average. I guess that particular stat comes with a lot of empty singles. The numbers would suggest playing Miguel Sano (1,171) at first base, but a recent injury has caused me to pivot to Brandon Belt (987).
I was all the more surprised at Taurus’s victory considering their best pitcher Lance Lynn (1,601) landed on the IL with a knee injury. That leaves Marcus Stroman (1,438) as the de facto ace, followed by graduating top prospect Casey Mize (1,178), and then AL East lefties John Means (1,122) and Shane McClanahan (1,015). Luckily, Kyle Freeland (633) just made a triumphant return from injury – he has actually been the team’s best performing fantasy pitcher over the last two weeks. In the bullpen, Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano (1,190) is the top option, with newly-acquired part-time Reds closer Mychal Givens (563) in the RP2 slot.
Moving to Pisces, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2,317) has been the star of their offense all season. Catcher J.T. Realmuto (1,237) and third baseman Jean Segura (1,259) have also been consistent starters, making all three of the lineups that I put together. There’s a bit of a disconnect at shortstop, with Bo Bichette (1,977) earning the edge over the course of the season, but former top overall prospect Wander Franco (813) being the best performer over the last month. Luckily, with the new positional structure I implemented this year, one of them can slide over to second base, where the top qualifier is Kansas City’s Nicky Lopez (1,152).
The Pisces outfield has been incredibly strong all year, but with a lot of moving parts. Right fielder Nick Castellanos (1,770) and rookie center fielder Adolis Garcia (1,527) have been mainstays, with the other two spots a revolving door of Randy Arozarena (1,528), Trey Mancini (1,430), Ryan Mountcastle (1,430 as well), and Kyle Schwarber (1,345). The latter is a lock for one of them, since he’s back from injury and hitting extremely well for his new team (the Red Sox). First baseman Rhys Hoskins (1,465) would likely have been the DH if he hadn’t gone down with a season-ending injury – instead that spot goes to trade acquisition Jorge Soler (1,170), who has been lighting it up recently for the Braves.
Perhaps no fantasy team has been hit as hard by pitching injuries as Pisces. First they lost longtime ace Clayton Kershaw (1,221) in July to a forearm injury. Then Pablo Lopez (1,033) went down a week later thanks to shoulder troubles. And finally Chris Bassitt (1,697) was hit in the face with a line drive – he’s thankfully recovering well from surgery, but he won’t return for the regular season. That leaves the Fish’s playoff rotation in the hands of veterans German Marquez (1,393) and Rich Hill (1,077), although if you look at more recent performances, some interesting names emerge. Their best pitchers over the last month have been rookies: Carlos Hernandez (692) for the Royals and James Kaprielian (902) for the A’s. Zooming in to just the last two weeks, Rangers first-year Glen Otto (123) has had a strong debut after being acquired from the Yankees at the deadline, and Adbert Alzolay (747) just came off the IL for the Cubs. So there are options…
The strength of the Pisces pitching staff has actually been the bullpen. Emmanual Clase (1,324) leads the charge for Cleveland. He’s just ahead of Aroldis Chapman (1,257) in total points, but the latter has struggled recently. Early season save-getters Brad Hand (1,021) and Richard Rodriguez (1,082) are now with new teams that are not employing them as closers. The best option for RP2 is currently Andrew Kittredge (1,156) of the Rays, whose unique bullpen usage has seen him pick up both some saves and some starts this year, while also making the All-Star squad.
Next time, I’ll continue going back in time through FABL history, since I can’t let go of a project once I’ve started it. But in the post after that, I’ll look at the first round playoff matchup in the Positive Polarity.